Arnaud Deblander
Jul 24, 2022 10:00 PM

What’s next for Bitcoin in 2022? 

Bitcoin is trading slightly above $23,000 at the time of writing this. What can we expect from the crypto market next? How is this bear market different from the previous ones? 

This week, for once, we decided to change our article format a bit and offer you a mini-interview with our CEO, Benjamin Duval. Ben will give us his opinion on the current state of the market as well as its differences from previous cycles.

Are you ready for this? Let's go!

Q1) As one of the Founders of UpBots, SuperBots, DEXTEND and MMU Capital, you must have gone through a few crypto cycles. Can you tell us how many and what they were like?

Indeed, I've been active in the cryptocurrency scene for quite some time now. At first it was a personal thing and it became a business only much later. I started to get interested in cryptos very early, around 2011, when Bitcoin was still under $1.

So I saw it reach $9 and then $2, in the same year. From the highest point to the lowest in this cycle, BTC lost almost 95% of its value. That was my first cycle and it was hair-raising; we often make mistakes the first time we experience an up/down cycle.

The next one was in 2013 and then in 2018 and finally the one we are experiencing now. All previous cycles have retraced at least 85% of their ATH, so the downside may not be over for this cycle. 

Q2) 2021 and 2022 have been quite a ride! Are they any different from the previous bull and bear cycles that you went through? What are the differences?

The last two years have indeed been quite interesting for the market. What struck me most about this latest bullmarket compared to the previous ones is the constant and omnipresent innovation.

This time we had NFTs, the advent of DeFi and more and more retailers entered the market. But that's not all, this is also the first time that institutional investors such as investment banks have entered the market.

This shows that the crypto market is slowly leaving its initial phase, reserved for the crypto-nerd like me, and is growing in maturity.

Q3) What are some of your strategies for navigating through this challenging period? How are you investing?

During my first steps on the crypto market, like any beginner, I made mistakes but it should be seen as a necessary learning process rather than a failure. At the time I was mainly trading manually on BTC pairs.

With the development of trading platforms and the advent of futures, it has become possible to automate trading by using trading algorithms. This does two things: 

Reduce your need to control your emotions, because the bot takes care of opening and closing your positions without any qualms. But be careful, this does not completely remove the need to manage your emotions.

Don't miss any opportunities while you are sleeping or at work. Bots never sleep and automatically enter positions for you.

Q4) What tips would you give to investors who are still currently in crypto?

It depends a bit on the type of investor still in the market. Just because the market is in a bear market doesn't mean everyone has deserted the crypto world. Did a significant part of the new entrants to the market during the last bullrun get pushed out? It's possible, but the crypto market is far from empty.

In fact, it's during bear market periods, when fear is at its peak, that the opportunities of a lifetime present themselves. As the saying goes, buy the brick when the streets are full of blood. The least we can say is that the news is rather bloody for crypto with some bankruptcies including that of 3AC or the exchange platform voyager.

Q5) How long do you foresee this bear period to last? Can we expect some kind of rebounce? A new trend in crypto maybe?

In the financial markets, cycles repeat themselves but are never completely the same, otherwise it would be too easy to take advantage of them, right?

Nevertheless, if we analyze the previous downturns, from the highest point to the lowest point, all but the one in 2011 lasted at least 400 days. The current downtrend since the ATH has now lasted 240 days. We could therefore expect this one to last a few more months with a potential low point reached in December.

Moreover, the decline usually reaches at least 80% retracement and we are currently "only" at 70% retracement. The $10-13,000 level for BTC would correspond perfectly to an 80-85% retracement.

On the other hand, just because a cycle occurred in such a way in the past does not mean that it will necessarily happen again in this one. It is possible that we have already reached the low point but until we have confirmation by a break of resistance and the appearance of a higher high structure, it will remain only a guess.